The recently released Provisional growth estimates for Q4 of FY20 ,by National Statistical Office presents a grim picture of Economy ,even before Pandemic hit India. With Coronavirus holding India tighter with each day passing , there needs to be a reality check .
Lets look at few pointers of Growth first:
Global Energy Demand
The World beheld the historic sight of Crude all prices in Futures Contract in US going into negative territory. According to International Energy Agency ,there was a 9% fall in Global Demand of Energy. The two factors being halted Industrial Activity and Stoppage of Transports.
World Economic Outlook by IMF points to negative growth for even many advanced European Economies in 2020. The demand massacre and Global exports free falling , the degrowth and problems associated with it would linger for years ,if not decades to come. UN Secretary General , Antonio Guterres has feared $8.3 Trillion loss of Global Output-biggest ever since The Great Depression.
The lockdown by various countries has done multiple harms . India ,for example , had one of the strictest lockdowns , as per Stringency Index in a study by Oxford University. This has starved off the Tourism sector , both Global and Domestic, putting 50 lakh jobs on the line. Also the transport Sector has crashed. With Aviation sector halted, many Airlines around the World have come to verge of Bankruptcy – latest in line was Latam Airlines , one of the biggest Airlines in South America. As per now too ,operations at capacity as low as 40% in India have not even been able to cover costs .
Uncertain Global Future
China , US , India and other powers have come at loggerheads due to various issues . Recent mounting tensions in India – China border at Ladakh, Issue of Taiwan and Hongkong and US terminating relations with WHO – all point to diminishing Global trust and soaring insecurities among Global powers. This just makes Global cooperation on issues like Economic Recovery ,Climate Change ,Poverty ,Disease and Global peace -a fancier possibility ever than before since Cold War Era .
All of this points to precarious situations our economic, social and political future is. The increasing powers of States on its subjects all around the World presents a devolution of political picture of the World .
India can present a new aspiration of hope – like a glimmer in the dark , to the Global community. By showing cooperation to its neighbours ,and revival of Fora like BRICS , BIMSTEC and SAARC – it presents a bid for the World to unify at this juncture – where it is most needed.